Analysis of this game have Getafe over-rated by the markets. My model have both these two teams priced up much closer @ 2.45 - 2.90. Therefore, I can see some really eye catching value backing Elche for the win.
I'm very surprised to see Getafe priced up this short for the win, given their very poor (Minus 9) home rating. This is a consequence of just one win from their last six at home in the league. That win came against Levante 2-1 last season. Levante are a very lowly rated away side and rank inside the bottom four for expected goals for, with just 4.94, spread over a small sample size of games.
The stand out result that interestingly makes their current price seem too short was the 0-1 home defeat against relegated Eibar. Getafe failed to take their only one big chance in the game, and ultimately paid the price when conceding from the penalty spot, losing the game 0-1
On the other hand, Elche themselves do have a slight better away rating on (Minus 6). In theory this should lend itself to a very close encounter, which automatically makes their current price seem too big. Their away rating is driven by them only winning one out of their last six away from home. That win was an emphatic 1-3 win over Cadiz. Admittedly, Cadiz are the lowest rank team at home in my model, so no huge surprise.
That said, Elche finished last season with back to back wins and so far this season have given highly rated sides like Atletico Madrid and Sevilla some problems. Madrid only beat them 1-0, and Elche managed to take a point at home against Sevilla drawing 1-1. Elche probably should of beat Bilbao, with the best chance of the game squandered by Milla in the 63rd minute.
This game ended in a 1-1 draw last term and on chance creation there wasn't much to choose between the two sides. A repeat of that would enhance the value and make their current price very appealing.