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Sony Open – Match Bets and Cut Bets

Russell Henley v Cameron Smith Match-bet 0.6pts, 2.0 @ Unibet (Tie-No-Bet)

Russell Henley (Group B Winner) 0.55pts, 5.2 @ Bet365

Zach Johnson v Kevin Kisner Match-bet 1.65pts, 2.05 @ Unibet (Tie-No-Bet)

Sepp Straka v Kevin Na Match-bet 1.65pts, 2.25 @ Unibet (Tie-No-Bet)

Marc Leishman to Miss the Cut, 2.2pts, 2.8 @ Bet365

Matt Kuchar to Miss the Cut, 1.1pts, 3.4 @ Bet365

Brendan Grace to Miss the Cut, 4pts, 2.4 @ Bet 65

Marc Leishman, Brendan Grace and Matt Kuchar all to Miss the Cut, 0.4pts, 22.2 @ Bet365

A lot of alternative markets to back this week and more than happy to given recent success in these areas.

First up is Russell Henley to beat Cameron Smith. Keeping stakes down on this one as there are a lot of reasons to like Smith and his form at the Sony Open is great. That said Henley ranks better off the tee, into greens and around greens than Smith so far this year. Smith has the advantage with the flat stick but that can really vary from week to week. Henley should be just favourite for me.

Following on from that I like Henley to win group B on Bet365. Hideki Matsuyama is one of the opposition who was shocking last week, finishing rock bottom. I prefer Henley to Smith as stated above. Kisner and Ancer’s stats don’t compare to Henley either this season and for me he looks the best pick of the group at the best price :D. Again, all opposition I do respect as good golfer s so keeping stakes low.

Zach Johnson to beat Kisner is the next pick. He was actually one I considered outright but the prices just weren’t good enough. He’s a past Sony Open champion and building up quite a start to the season. Yet to miss a cut and his game looks in pretty decent shape. From the 3 events they’ve both played so far this season Johnson takes the lead 2-1 with a combined score of -8 vs Kisners -4. Nice to get above evens on someone who I’d have as favourite.

Sepp Straka to beat Kevin Na is the next pick. Without looking at the market in detail it’s not one that jumped out to me. The more I looked though the more I liked it! Again, its all down to stats here and both golfers are very consistent in terms of their finishes and making cuts. However, Na is losing strokes on the field in all categories except around the greens whereas Straka’s only leak appears to be off the tee. It should be closer to a pick ’em for me!

The final 3 picks (4 bets) are all in the to miss the cut market with Bet365 and when ranking the golfers in the field I had these in the lower half. Prior to last week Leishman had missed 2 cuts from 5 events and was playing terribly.

I don’t think last week was anything to deter us from opposing him in the correct market but stakes are a little reduced. Hopefully, we’ll see another abysmal performance and can continue to make money from the big man’s demise.

Kuchar is next. He has similar stats with 2 missed cuts from his last 6 events indicating small value here. I thought he was class in 2019 but he then deteriorated a bit through 2020. That’s continued for me into this season and it’s now got to the point where I’m happy to oppose him. However, keeping it small as he did win the QBE shootout, even though that’s a pairs event.

Final, and biggest pick of the week, is Brendan Grace to miss the cut. Last season he was cut 10 times in 16 events. This season he’s been cut 4 times in 8 events. His game doesn’t look in a great place and his putting has been poor.

Whilst I usually say this can turn from one week to the next, he’s had trouble for the last 3 seasons. Happy to go big stakes here as I would have it as odds on! Can combine all 3 for an exciting treble to cheer on in day 2.

Enjoy and let’s keep the profit streak up for another week!

FEATURED IMAGE “An image of golfer en:Zach Johnson on tour in 2007.” by Keith Allison is licensed under CC BY 2.0

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A statistical approach to golf betting focusing on the PGA Tour

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