Burnley: To Win v Aston Villa – 4.10 @ SBK. 1pt
Fulham: To Win v Brighton – 4.00 @ Marathonbet, 2pts
Dijon: To Win v Lorient – 3.40 @ SBK, 2.5pts
My first selection comes from the Premier League game between Burnley and Aston Villa, kick off, 6pm.
Analysis of this game have both these teams evenly matched in terms of ratings. I can see some eye catching value backing the home win here, in what seems a 50/50 game between two evenly matched teams.
I can’t separate these two teams in my model, so in theory this could be a close encounter. I currently have Burnley on a Minus 1 rating. This is driven by them losing just 2 out of their last 6 at home from open play.
Their most recent notable result was the (0-1) away win at Anfield, and although they were 2nd best throughout the game, and the goal came from the penalty spot, you can’t take anything away from the result. Confidence should be sky high.
Burnley’s stand out performance at home was the very slender (0-1) defeat at home to high flying Manchester United whom are the highest rated away team in my model. Looking at the xG angle it clearly highlights a spirited performance from Burnley, (xG:1.23-1.41).
Overall Burnley have lost just 1 out of their last 5, and they have conceded just 2 goals in that time, so defensively they are a very tough team to come up against, as always under Sean Dyche.
On the other hand, Aston Villa for all of their excellent work in the final third only have a Zero away rating. This is driven by them winning just 1 out of their last 6 away from home from open play.
Their most notable defeat was losing (2-1) away at West Ham who aren’t that dissimilar in terms of rating as Burnley, so again in theory Burnley have an excellent chance of taking the points.
Burnley lost this game (1-2) last season, but if you look at the xG for that game, (xG:2.46-1.48), on a better day, Burnley probably should of won the game 2-1.
My second selection comes from the Premier League game between Brighton and Fulham, kick off, 7:30pm.
Analysis of this game have Brighton over-rated by the markets. I have these two teams priced up differently @ (2.87-2.62). Therefore the best price on offer for the away win holds really good value.
Brighton are really struggling at home and with a Minus 11 home rating it clearly highlights a team that lack confidence in their home surroundings. This is driven by them wining just 1 out of their last 6 from open play.
Their most noted defeat was losing (0-1) to a very poor Arsenal at that time who were going through a bad patch in terms of results. The fact that Brighton failed to leave a glove on them was more evidence of a team that on any day can be beaten at home.
Brighton have yet to win at home this season, however in certain games they can look really good, but not winning is becoming a bad habit for them and it’s known that they tire quickly, especially in the second half of games.
On the other hand, Fulham are improving thanks to some clever recruitment in the defensive unit. Fulham have a Plus 3 away rating and for this game my model cannot ignore that they probably should be favs for the win.
This is driven by them losing just 2 out of their last 6 from open play. Their stand out performances were going to 6th placed Tottenham and drawing (1-1) and going to 3rd placed Leicester and winning (1-2).
In terms of xG their is nothing to choose between these two teams, that said, I would back Fulham all day long to take their chances, whereas Brighton as mentioned are fairing badly.
My third selection comes from the French Ligue 1 and the game between Lorient and Dijon, kick off, 8:00pm.
Analysis of this game have Lorient massively over-rated by the markets. I have these two teams priced up @ (3.80-2.05). Therefore the best price on offer for the away win holds really good value.
I’m very surprised that Lorient are favs here based on my ratings. Lorient have a Minus 16 home rating which is up there with some of the worst in the league. This is driven by them winning just 1 out of their last 6 from open play.
Their most notable result as losing (0-2) to a Nantes team that rate really poor away from home and are 17th in the table.
Overall Lorient have gone 8 games without a win and they have conceded 12 goals in their last 4 home and away.
On the other hand, Dijon head into this with a Plus 12 away rating which is remarkable given their lowly league position of 18th. This is driven by them winning 3 out of their last 6 from open play.
Their stand out performance was going to Nice and winning (1-3). Their record against poorly rated teams away from home has been excellent and I would not be surprised to see a comfortable win here.
FEATURED IMAGED “Sean Dyche during post-match press conference as manager of Burnley” by Kelvin Stuttard is licensed under CC BY 2.0