Gavin Green First Round Leader 0.5pts EW – 140/1 @ bet365 (5 Places 1/4 Odds)
Dean Burmester First Round Leader 0.5pts – 80/1 @ William Hill (5 Places 1/4 Odds)
Andy Sullivan First Round Leader 0.25pts – 45/1 @ SkyBet (1/5 Odds 5 Places)
Wilco Nienaber First Round Leader 0.25pts – 80/1 GentingBet (1/4 Odds 5 Places)
These golf betting tips come from the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and the First Round Leader market.
Right, let’s start with the weather forecast. The wind isn’t set to play a massive role on Day 1. It may pick up to about 10mph in the afternoon but nothing major.
The big thing for me is the cooler temperatures in the morning. The ball won’t travel as far for those teeing off before 9am. That will make the Par 5s harder to reach. The last 3 First Round Leaders all came from the PM wave.
Gavin Green should not be 140/1 in this market. In his last 32 European Tour events he has twice been the First Round Leader. One of those came in the Middle East in the Saudi International last season (tied with McDowell).
His other FRL was the Czech Masters where he led on his own in 2019. In this spell he was also T2 in the Andalucia Masters, T2 in the KLM Open and T4 at Wentworth.
He’s been in the Top 10 after 18 holes in 4 of his last 8 tournaments. His stats are perfect for this market. Last season he was 9th in Driving Distance, 18th in Birdie Average and 5th in Eagles. Green has made the cut in 3 of his last 4 appearances in this event with a couple of 68s. Last group out in Round 1.
Dean Burmester is a favourite of mine in this market. He’s landed me some nice winners. His stats are great. 2nd in driving Distance in 2020, 3rd in putting and Top 20 for Par 5 Scoring, Birdie Average and Eagles. No wonder he produces low scores.
Burmester has been the First Round Leader in 2 of his last 9 tournaments. He finished 3rd here last season and was T3 after 18 holes. Also has an afternoon tee time in Round 1.
Andy Sullivan is the only player of this quartet with a morning tee time. That doesn’t worry me too much as of the 4 he’s the shortest hitter so may not have been able to attack the Par 5s like the others would. He does have a 63 here in the past though.
He led after Round 1 in the Golf in Dubai Championship just last month shooting a brilliant 61. Last season he ranked 5th in Birdie Average, 6th in Par 5 Scoring and 13th in Eagles. Smaller stakes due to the tee time and the fact SkyBet are a shit bookmaker.
Wilco Nienaber is a player I will back every week at these odds in this market. Last season he averaged 340 yards off the tee. Can you imagine playing your local golf course and being able to hit it 340 yards??? You’d probably run out of golf balls after 5 holes but boy would it be fun.
The young South African also ranked 1st in Eagles, 5th in Par 5 Scoring and 6th in Birdie Average in 2020. He held a share of the lead in the Joburg Open towards the end of 2020 and played excellent golf over the weekend in the Dubai World Tour Championship (67 67). Last week was woeful, hence the smaller stakes. Afternoon tee time.