Nantes: To Win v Lyon – 4.60 @ betfair – 1pt
This selection comes from the French Ligue 1 game between Nantes and Lyon, kick off, 8:00pm.
Analysis of this game have both these teams quite evenly matched in terms of ratings and expected goals over a small sample size of games. Therefore the best price on offer for the home win represents smart value, given Lyon are on a vulnerable away mark.
More than happy to throw a dart at Nantes here on their (Zero) home rating. This rating is driven by them winning 2 out of their last 6 home games from open play, however, Nantes have lost just once in line with the modelling. (W2 D3 L1).
One piece of form that’s caught my attention was the very slender (1-2) defeat at the hands of a highly rated away side in Montpellier. Looking at the expected goals model, it clearly highlights an unfortunate defeat, with Nantes creating the better chances, 1.52 – 0.67.
On the other hand, Lyon have kicked off the new season very poorly, failing to register a win, in all three of their opening games. My model have them on a very opposable (Plus 4) rating, which could be regressive, given they lost (3-0) away against an Angers side that rate far worse than Nantes.
Lyon’s away rating is driven by them winning 2 out of their previous 6 away from home, etc. (W2 D2 L2).
The stand out result to analyse was the (3-0) away defeat against Angers. Lyon failed to take their chances, but what’s most worrying is they conceded two big chances against a Angers side that rank as the 4th worst side at home for chance creation.