Turkey +1 Asian Handicap v Italy 1pt – 1.94 @ bet365
This free football betting tip comes from Euro 2020 and the opening match on Friday between Italy and Turkey.
Much has been made of Italy’s run since Mancini took charge. Yes, they won all 10 qualifiers, yes they are on a 27 match unbeaten run and yes they’ve not conceded a goal in 8 games.
But…..International football throws up a lot of shit opponents. Many of which Italy has been beating. This is the finals of the European Championship. Who cares what they have done against shit opposition. I don’t.
I went back through their results and filtered the scores against Top 30 nations from the unreliable (I wanted to make that clear) FIFA World Rankings. Since 2018 Italy has played 14 matches against those sides, winning only 4.
Of those 4 wins, 3 of them came by a single goal. If you are not familiar with Asian Handicap, it means if Turkey lose this game by 1 goal we get our stake back. If they win, or draw, our bet lands.
So this bet, in Italy’s last 14 matches against Top 30 nations, won 11 times and lost only once. We are getting close to Evens. I should add that Turkey is 29th in the FIFA Rankings.
This bet would have also netted us a return in 27 of Turkey’s last 28 matches and lost in just 1 of their last 13. This included matches with Netherlands, Croatia, Germany and twice against current World Champions and favourites for this tournament, France.
Turkey has 2 good central defenders in Demiral (Juventus) and Soyuncu (Leicester). They only conceded 3 goals during the qualifying campaign, although their recent World Cup Qualifiers have been more entertaining.
Veteran striker Yilmaz is coming off an excellent season for Lille and AC Milan’s Calhanoglu will be the main creative spark for Turkey. Italy could be missing key midfielder Verratti for this game.
Turkey +1 Asian Handicap looks a good value play for the opening game of the European Championship. bet365 are offering the best odds on this Euro 2020 free betting tip. Sign up below if you don’t have an account.