**** it! I fancy some interest in the darts tonight. So sue me. Before you criticize this approach, look at the stakes! They tell you all you need to know. But I still believe there is value, at least based on my prices.
I had Rob Cross at 2.75! Michael Smith is clearly in better form right now and if he continues to produce that level then Cross is in deep sh*t. But time and time again in his career Bully Boy has missed darts at double and failed on the big stage.
The H2H is what makes this worth a small investment. Cross has won 15 of their 19 meetings to date. Cross has won 7 of the last 8 encounters with Smith. Darts is very much a mental game, it certainly ain’t physical. So for Smith to step on stage thinking “I never beat Cross”, could make all the difference to whether those doubles land or miss.
Taking on Devon Petersen makes me throw up a little in my mouth. When he’s on, he looks like the greatest player ever to play darts. But facts are facts and that’s how I price up my matches and the fact is, Petersen was dog sh*t last week in the Winter Series.
These stats might surprise you a little, but across their last 30 matches, Petersen has a 95.09 average and has won 70% of his matches. Heta has a 97.16 average and has won 73% of his matches.
Throw in the fact that Heta won their only meeting (if you can call it that, it was the home tour) and suddenly 2.38 looks a decent price on the Aussie.
So if those stats are correct you might wonder why I don’t make Heta the favourite. Good question smart arse. That’s because Petersen’s A-Game is a lot higher than 95 and if he produces his best it will be almost impossible for Heta to live with him.
One final point before you nod off for a mid-afternoon nap. I love Heta’s attitude. When asked, in every single interview he does (change the subject please) about his big life move from down under, he talks about coming here to do some damage and not just making up the numbers. He has real belief in his game and hopefully, having tipped him at 50/1 outright, he can show that over the next few days.
Third and final tip is Gary ‘hopalong” Anderson. His knee looks knackered. But with so many big events coming up he’s going to keep playing. Plus it’s not his forefront leg so it doesn’t effect his throw, it just means he looks like a pensioner when getting his darts out the board.
How that will effect him over this longer format is yet to be seen, but it was only last weekend that MVG was in an Austrian hospital with a bad back.
I put my faith in the stats. The H2H makes ugly reading with MVG leading 8-1. Uh Oh. However, the mighty green machine (or whatever he’s called) is only averaging 95.97 across his last 30 matches. Yes I know he’s thrown up some big numbers this week, but only across a few legs.
Anderson’s last 30 match average is 96.62 and both of them have won 70% of their matches. So on recent form this could be close. SBK are offering 3.94 so take advantage of that. I’ll settle it at 3.75 given how that site works. Same with the Heta tip, that will be settled at 2.38, but get the best odds if you can.
Keep your stakes down. I’ll be betting £2.50 on each of these. So don’t get carried away. It’s safer gambling week after all.
FEATURED IMAGE “Rob Cross – 2017253222109 2017-09-10 PDC German Darts Grand Prix (GDGP) – Sven – 1D X MK II – 0497 – B70I6973” by Sven Mandel is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 This section is an excerpt of the original.