Werder Bremen To Win v Wolfsburg – 4.43 @ SBK, 1pt
Bristol City To Win v Reading – 3.10 @ William Hill, 2pts
Leeds To Win v Everton – 3.75 @ betway, 2pts
Luton To Win v Cardiff City – 4.75 @ bet365, 1pt
My first tip comes from the Bundesliga game between Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen, kick off, 7:30pm.
Analysis of this game have Wolfsburg priced up too short for me. I have these two teams priced up @ (2.05-3.75). Therefore I see some eye catching value backing the away win in this one.
My model does hint towards Werder Bremen at the current match prices being the best bet to have in this game. Wolfsburg currently have a very modest zero home rating, which means they aren’t pulling up trees at home, and seem very opposable.
This is driven by them winning just 50% of their home games. The most notable result was the (0-0) draw at home to Augsburg. Augsburg are a team that have the same rating as Werder Bremen away from home, which in theory may lend itself to a tight game.
Looking at the xG metric (xG:0.99-1.18), it clearly highlights a close game that could of gone either way. I am counting on this being another close game and hopefully Werder Bremen can just edge it.
Werder Bremen do have a particularly good record against tonight’s opponents winning this game (2-3) last season. In fact, Wolfsburg have failed to win any of their last 3 home meetings in this corresponding game, drawing twice (1-1) in the others.
As for the away side, they do have a Plus 2 away rating which should see them very competitive. This is driven by them losing just once from open play away from home. Werder Bremen have been away to Frankfurt and picked up a very good point given the attacking threat they pose.
Werder Bremen have just recently come away from the European champions and won the xG battle (xG:1.58-1.69). The (1-1) draw was the least they deserve and what confidence that result brings into this game could be pivotal.
My second selection comes from the Championship game between Reading and Bristol City, kick off, 12:30pm.
Analysis of this game have Reading priced up too short here. I have these two teams priced up @ (3.40-2.15). Therefore I see really good value backing Bristol City for the win.
My model strongly hints towards the away win being the best bet here. Although Reading have a Plus 3 home rating their overall rating is dropping each week having failed to win any of their last 5 league games.
What is more alarming is defensively they have started to ship quite a few goals with at least 3 goals conceded in their last 2 home games, against Stoke and Preston. These are two teams that rate really well away also, so it does suggest that against good opposition Reading can get found out at the back.
Reading also rank around 18th in my xG table for attacking output in home games so far. They are a team that rely heavily on individual brilliance, which is not sustainable throughout the season.
On the other hand, Bristol City rate as the highest away team in my model away from home, with a Plus 17 rating, which in my book should have them as favs for the win. This is contributed by them winning 5 out of their 6 away games from open play.
I would be far happier backing them on the road, as their process in terms of results and attacking creativity is far better. Bristol City are a team that are renowned for being far stronger away.
Bristol City have also kept 3 clean sheets on the spin and in terms of attacking output rank inside the top ten on their travels, This combination should hold them in good stead for this game.
My third tip comes from the Championship game between Cardiff City and Luton, kick off, 3pm.
Analysis of this game have Cardiff priced up too short here. I have these two teams priced up @ (2.40-3.25). Therefore I see some really eye catching value backing the away win for this one.
I really am surprised Cardiff on a Minus 10 home rating are odds on for the win here. This looks like fantasy pricing for a team that are a far stronger away from home. At home Cardiff have just the solitary home win and clean sheet and that was against Barnsley. (W1, D2, L3).
Cardiff also come into this off the back of a very poor performance away at Coventry losing the game (1-0), Looking at the xG metric it clearly highlights poor attacking output (xG:0.79-0.36). Overall Cardiff have won just three games all season.
On the other hand, Luton have a very positive away rating on Plus 7, which makes their price for the away win looking like the value play. This is contributed by them winning 3 away games away from home, with 3 clean sheets. (W3, D1, L2).
Luton are on a run of three draws, however they were unfortunate last time out and only an individual error prevented them winning at home to Birmingham. Luton won the non-pen xG battle convincingly (xG:1.42-0.65).
My fourth selection comes from the Premier League game between Everton and Leeds, kick off, 5:30pm.
Analysis of this game have Everton priced up too short for me. I have these two teams priced up @ (2.60-2.80). Therefore I see really good value backing Leeds for the away win here.
I am expecting this to be a really close fought battle with two teams showing defensive lapses in recent games. I can’t agree with Everton being odds on for the win given they have conceded at least 2 goals in each of their last 6 Premier League games.
My model does hint towards Leeds being the best bet to have in this game. Everton was last seen winning away at Fulham (2-3), however the overall performance would concern me with Fulham very unfortunate not to take at least a point in this game. (xG:1.90-1.99).
Lucas Digne has become the latest casualty at the back for Everton and that is another blow with Seamus Coleman already sitting out. Carlo Ancelotti will resume with a three at the back system, however, none of his back line are in good form. Jordan Pickford is having a poor season.
On the other hand, Leeds responded well at home to Arsenal proving that when Bielsa has something of a full strength squad to choose from they can be a match for anyone in this league.
Everton are currently on a Plus 2 home rating, whereas Leeds do have a Plus 10 away rating. Leeds are driven by winning 3 out of their 4 away games from open play, which includes Liverpool, Aston Villa and Sheffield United.