These free football betting tips come from the European Championship and the match between England v Scotland.
I feel like most of my previews this week have started with a look at the referee. Not that the stats have proven much use so far. Fingers crossed that changes. Antonio Mateu Lahoz takes charge at Wembley tonight and is averaging 4.9 cards per game this season, that will do.
The Scots could be more pumped for this game than the English, who are in a much better position to qualify. McGinn is a terrier in the heart of their midfield and has been booked a massive 49 times in the past 4 seasons.
He ended the Premier League campaign by getting booked in each of the last 5 matches. He will want to set an example and I expect him to be fierce in his tackles. 3.1 appears low at first glance, but given the circumstances, I think it’s a good price.
At a bigger price, I like the right wing-back for Scotland, Stephen O’Donnell. He’ll likely be up against Sterling, or perhaps even Grealish. For me, he’s out of his depth in this company and you only have to go back 3 appearances for Scotland for the last time he was carded.
A know, that’s a shit stat, but he doesn’t get booked very often. But he doesn’t face this level of opposition, in this environment, very often. 5/1 looks worth a punt.
I’m almost ashamed of myself for the next 2 bets, but I think Scotland is value. They played well in my opinion against the Czech Republic and just didn’t get any luck, especially with the deflections. They created an xG (expected goals) of 2.3 in that game. In comparison, England had a 1.5 xG in their win over Croatia.
Tierney is set to return to the side and I’d be amazed if Che Adams doesn’t start. He looked dangerous when he came on at halftime. A draw here isn’t a disaster for either side. It keeps Scotland’s chances alive and almost guarantees England a safe passage into the knockout stages.
Given the draw of the tournament, there really isn’t that much of an incentive for England to top the group and if the game is level with 10 minutes to go, I doubt either team will be bombing forward for the win, at the risk of defeat.
After his 2nd half display at Hampden, I’m taking a punt on Che Adams to score at 6/1. He’s bagged 2 goals in 5 appearances for Scotland since discovering his Great Great Granny once went on holiday to Scotland (apparently that makes him Scottish).
Adams has scored 3 goals in his last 5 for club and country. 2 of those matches he was only on the pitch for 45 minutes. He’s proven himself against big opposition with 3 goals against Chelsea and Man City last season.
That’s me done for today. I’m going to put my feet up and enjoy the football, hoping one or two of my tips land. Good Luck.
FEATURED IMAGE “Kane during a pre-season game for Spurs at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee, July 2017” by Brad Tutterow is licensed under CC BY 2.0