Nimes: To Win v Nice – 5.00 @ Paddy Power, 1.5pts
Bristol City: To Win v Bournemouth – 4.80 @ Betfred, 1pt
Udinese: To Win v AC Milan – 5.00 @ SBK, 1pt
My first selection comes from the French Ligue 1 game between Nice and Nimes, kick off, 6:00pm.
Analysis of this game have Nice over-rated by the markets. I have these two teams priced up @ (2.25-3.20). Therefore the best price on offer for the away win holds plenty of appeal given the home sides lack of invention in front of goal.
Nice did the business for us at the weekend coming away with all 3 points against a struggling Rennes away from home (1-2). Happy to put that aside here on the basis that their home rating remains very poor on Minus 12. This home rating does reflect inconsistencies with their results.
This is driven by them winning just 2 out of their last 6 home games from open play. Their stand out result was losing (0-1) against a St Etienne side who themselves aren’t great away from home. In terms of xG they have a poorer return than Nimes, but still generated (1.42 xG) in this game.
On the other hand, Nimes do have a Plus 2 away rating, which should hold them in good stead here. In terms of chance creation they have generated far more than their counterparts with (6.44 xG) over the last 6 away games, whereas, Nice stand on (4.90 xG).
My second selection comes from the Championship game between Bristol City and Bournemouth, kick off, 7:45pm.
Analysis of this game have both these two teams evenly matched in terms of ratings. Therefore the best price on offer for the home win holds plenty of appeal given I have this game rated 50/50.
Nigel Pearson has taken the reigns at Bristol City and what a couple of great results he’s had beating Middlesbrough and Swansea away from home (1-3). My ratings model can’t discount them here with them both on even terms, on Minus 5 and Bournemouth on Minus 7.
Bournemouth just look too short in the markets for the win here. Their away rating is partly driven by them failing to win, from open play, each of their last four. In that run they have scored just 2 goals. Bournemouth are under-performing their xG numbers by some way
On the other hand, Bristol City may just be very progressive under new management. At home scoring goals has been a huge problem, but the last two games have shown that they certainly have the players to cause an upset here.
Bournemouth did lose their last away game (2-1) against QPR, and they themselves aren’t tearing up at home on a negative rating. The big concern here is Bristol City have measly (3.12 xG) over their last 6 home games which is poor. If that can improve they can win this game.
My third selection comes from the Italy Serie A game between AC Milan and Udinese, kick off, 7:45pm.
Analysis of this game have both these two teams evenly matched in terms of ratings and expected goals over a small sample size of games. Therefore the best price on offer for the away win holds plenty of value given I have this game rated 50/50.
My model does suggest that AC Milan should be opposed here on a Minus 7 home rating. This is driven by them winning just 2 out of their last 6 home games from open play. Milan have been beaten by all the top sides at home recently and their title push looks very fragile.
The defeat against Inter Milan brought them back down to earth losing convincingly, (0-3). The overall performance wasn’t great either generating just (0.83 xG) against a defensive unit that isn’t the best in the league.
Milan look very much far happier on their travels with results far superior. Their xG process is lower and between the two there is not much difference, in fact Udinese have created slightly more, (xG:Milan:7.93-8.47Udinese)
As for Udinese, they are the slightly the better rated side on Minus 5 and you have to give them a chance here on that. This is driven by them losing just 2 out of their last 6 away from home, from open play.
The team news looks bad AC Milan with Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Hakan Calhanoglu out through injury. This is a big blow in the attacking third. Udinese did go their last season and give Milan a real scare losing narrowly (3-2).