Derby To Win v Bristol City – 3.40 @ Bet365, 2pts
QPR To Win v Watford – 3.60 @ Bet365, 2pts
Cardiff City To Win v Millwall – 3.15 @ VBet, 2pts
Celta Vigo To Win v Sevilla – 5.6 @ Unibet, 1pt
My first selection comes from the Championship game between Bristol City v Derby, kick off, 3pm.
Analysis of this game have Bristol City over-priced for the win. On recent form I have these two teams priced up differently @ (2.75-2.50). Therefore I see some really good value backing Derby for the away win for this one.
Following my model it does hint towards Derby being the best bet here. Bristol City rate far stronger away from home and have failed massively to match their consistency in their own stadium.
Bristol City currently have a Minus 7 home rating. This is spawned from them failing to win, from open play, any of their previous 3 home games. My model gave them negative points in the game at home to Swansea in which the penalty spot came to their rescue. Bristol City notched up just (0.55) non-pen xG in this game.
Further analysis that caught my attention was the (0-1) defeat at home to Middlesbrough. Again the xG for this game clearly shows that Middlesbrough were far the stronger side and really should of won this game by more (xG:0.29-1.72). Again another blunt attacking display by the home side.
What is really interesting is that Middlesbrough have a similar rating as Derby, so in theory we well may see a really tight game, with Derby just edging it.
On the other hand, Derby have taken the correct decision to make a managerial change. Time will tell if Leory Rosenior and Wayne Rooney can make an immediate impact, but I wouldn’t be surprised. Derby do have plenty of potential as seen last season.
Derby currently have a Plus 1 away rating which is far away from their home rating of Minus 22. My slight concern is with their consistency, but I have looked at the game between them and Bournemouth that finished (1-1). It’s fair to say they were slightly unfortunate not to pick up all 3 points.
Alfie Mawson looks to be a huge blow at the back for Bristol City out through injury. On the flip-side, the new management team at Derby have a full squad at their disposal and have the luxury of picking their best eleven.
My second selection comes from the game in the Championship between QPR v Watford, kick off, 3pm.
Analysis of this game have Watford priced up too big for the win. On recent form I have these two teams priced up differently @ (2.50-2.75). Therefore I see really good value backing QPR for the home win here.
Again my model hints toward the home team being the best bet here. QPR are not pulling up any trees on a zero rating, however, their non-pen xG process is far superior to their counterparts. That came to light when surprisingly beating Cardiff City (3-2) at home. The non-pen xG in that game reflected the final score with QPR just edging it, (xG:1.92-1.58). Cardiff have a Plus 6 away rating which makes the result very impressive.
QPR are unbeaten at home from open play and their only real defeat came against Preston who are a highly rated away team. Both of Preston’s goals came from the pen spot, so my model does strike them away, and gave rating points for a (0-0) draw.
On the other hand, Watford on analysis look lack luster on their travels. Only once have they generated more than 1 expected goal in their away games this season and that came in defeat away to Barnsley losing (1-0).
Watford also failed to have any input going forward against Wycombe. The (1-1) draw in the end flattered Watford and looking at the xG data it clearly shows just how unfortunate Wycombe were (xG:1.78-0.98).
On the road Watford have a Minus 2 away rating and from open play have generated just (4.08) xG which is one of the worst attacking outputs in the league away from home. It seems only right to oppose and make QPR favs for the win.
My third selection comes from the Championship game between Millwall v Cardiff, kick off, 3pm.
Analysis of this game have Cardiff under-rated in the markets. On recent form I can’t separate these two @ (2.60-2.60). Therefore I see really good value backing Cardiff for the away win in this one.
My model strongly hints towards Cardiff being the best bet here. Millwall look far happier away from home and with a Minus 1 home rating it does seem right to oppose the markets.
Millwall have won just once at home this season and that was against a very poor Luton side on the day. The result that as caught my immediate attention was the (0-3) drubbing at home to Huddersfield. This is a team with a zero away rating, so Cardiff’s Plus 6 away rating should hold them well here.
Further analysis highlights that Millwall have failed to score in their last 3 league outings which includes a poor (0-0) draw away to Sheffield Wednesday in which they probably should of won, but failed to take their chances, (xG:0.77-1.26). i can conclude that Millwall are under-performing their xG.
On the other hand, Cardiff are renowned for being well set up away from home. Cardiff have tasted defeat only once this season on the road and that was a ding dong battle away at QPR losing (3-2).
As mentioned a Plus 6 away rating shouldn’t be ignored. The game last season ended (2-2) and looking at the xG metric (xG:0.55-1.47) it clearly shows on another day Cardiff could of got the win. Clinical finishing from Tom Bradshaw stole the spoils.
My fourth selection comes from the La Liga game between Sevilla v Celta Vigo, kick off, 5:30pm.
Analysis of this game have Sevilla over-rated in the markets. On recent form I have these two teams priced up @ (1.90-4.00). Therefore I see some decent value taking a chance on the away win here.
My model does hint towards Celta Vigo at the current prices being the best bet to have in this game. Sevilla have in large really struggled in their home games and with a Minus 3 home rating they are well worth opposing.
Further analysis has brought to my attention Sevilla’s very poor output in front of goal. The home side in their 3 home games and it is a very small sample size thus far have generated just (3.57) non-pen xG which is one of the worst attacking outputs in the league.
Their last home game was a really poor performance and Osasuna were extremely unfortunate not to take something from the game with the xG metric clearly highlighting this, (xG:0.33-0.79). Sevllla have to raise their levels for the visit of Celta Vigo who carry a far greater goal threat.
As for Celta Vigo well they have a Plus 7 away rating. This is spawned by them winning 3 out of their 5 away games from open play. Only individual errors have prevented them from being higher in the table.
Celta have won the xG battle in 4 out of their 5 away games. I have them ranked in the top 6 for attacking creativity, so I am expecting them to be very combative in this game.
Furthermore Sevilla have failed to beat Celta Vigo in any of their last 3 meetings between the two. Celta Vigo won the last encounter (2-1), albeit at home.We also may see a new manager bounce with Eduardo Coudet newly appointed for the away side.