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Freiburg: To Win v Stuttgart – 3.30 @ William Hill – 2pts
Birmingham: To Win v Barnsley – 3.50 @ Bwin – 2pts
Blackburn: To Win v Middlesbrough – 3.60 @ Betfair – 2pts
St Etienne: To Win v Marseille – 5.00 @ Betfair – 1.5pts
My first selection comes from the German Bundesliga game between Stuttgart and Freiburg, kick off, 2:30pm.
Analysis of this game have Stuttgart over-rated by the markets. I have both these two teams priced up @ (2.55 – 2.87). Therefore the best price on offer for the away win represents nice value, given Stuttgart are inconsistent at home.
I have Stuttgart rated as the 2nd worst home team currently on their (Minus 8) home rating. This rating is driven by them winning just two out of their last 6 home games in line with the modelling. (W2 D1 L3).
The stand out result to look at was the very fortunate (1-0) win against relegated Werder Bremen. The winning goal came via an own goal in the 81st minute of the game. Prior to that goal, Stuttgart really failed to create anything meaningful, with a goalless draw looking the likely outcome.
Looking at their xG process over the period of games it clearly highlights a side that don’t take their chances. Stuttgart rank as the 3rd best side at home in the Bundesliga, so the disparity between rating and expected goals stands out.
On the other hand, Freiburg come into this game having just beaten Dortmund at home (2-1). Freiburg looked great value for that win creating the better chances in the game, and the goal they conceded did come via an own goal, so unfortunate not to take a clean sheet too.
My model have Freiburg on a (Minus 3) away rating. This rating is driven by them losing just 2 out of their last 6 away games in line with the modelling. (W1 D3 L2).
The stand out result was the (1-4) away win against a Cologne side that are rated 6 points better than Stuttgart. Freiburg limited Cologne to just one big chance in this game, whilst creating 3 really big chances in the opposite box.
Freiburg did win a very entertaining game last season (2-3). Freiburg took a 0-3 lead inside 47 mins of the game.
My second selection comes from the Championship game between Barnsley and Birmingham, kick off, 3:00pm.
Analysis of this game have Birmingham under-rated by the markets. I have both these two teams priced up @ (2.80 – 2.50). Therefore the best price on offer for the away win represents excellent value, given I have Birmingham ranked currently, as the 2nd best away side.
Barnsley continue to be over-rated by the markets purely based on their numbers last season. I have them on a very opposable (Zero) home rating. This rating is driven by them winning 3 out of their previous 6 home games in line with the modelling. (W3 D1 L2).
The stand out results to look at are the (0-1) defeats against two highly rated away teams, Luton and Swansea. What’s noticeable in both games is that Barnsley were probably the better side in both, but failed to take their big chances and subsequently failing to score.
Barsnley also rank as a mid-table side in terms of big chance creation, with a modest 6.38 non-pen expected goals over their last six home games. Their underlying numbers are slightly better away from home.
On the other hand, Birmingham should be favs for the win on their (Plus 12) away rating. This rating is a consequence of them winning 4 out of their last 6 away games in line with the modelling. (W4 D1 L1). That ranks as the 2nd best currently away in the league.
The stand out result was last weekend against Luton. Birmingham recorded an emphatic (0-5) win making that back-to-back away wins with clean sheets this season. Birmingham look to be brimming with confidence under Lee Bowyer.
Another factor here is their big chance creation data is greater than their counterparts, 8.69 non-pen expected goals, sampled over the same number of games. Given that Birmingham are rating better, and look more of a threat, it leaves me perplexed with the current market prices.
My third selection comes from the Championship game between Middlesbrough and Blackburn, kick off, 3:00pm.
Analysis of this game have Middlesbrough over-rated by the markets. I have both these two teams priced up @ (2.70 – 2.50). Therefore the best price on offer for the away win represents nice value, given Middlesbrough look vulnerable off their current rating score.
Middlesbrough come into this on a very opposable (Minus 5) home rating. This rating is a consequence of them winning just 2 out of their previous 6 at home in line with the modelling. (W2 D1 L3).
The stand out result to look at is the (0-3) home defeat against relegated Wycombe last season. The performance was nothing short of an embarrassment, with Wycombe fully deserving of the points. Middlesbrough recorded just two shots inside the opposition penalty area.
On the other hand, Blackburn come into this on a (Zero) away rating, which can’t rule them out for the outright win here. This rating is driven by them admittedly winning just once from open play in their last 6 away games, (W1 D3 L2)
That win did come this season when recording a (1-2) away win against another poorly rated home team in Nottingham Forest. Blackburn did limit Forest to just one shot in the box. Nottingham Forest do rank higher in terms of big chance creation than Middlesbrough, so this could be a factor.
This corresponding fixture last season ended in a slender (0-1) away win for Blackburn. On this occasion Middlesbrough did fail to take their chances in the game, and paid the price the ultimate price, with Blackburn converting their best chance of the game.
My fourth selection comes from the French Ligue 1 game between Marseille and St Etienne, kick off, 8:00pm.
Analysis of this game have St Etienne under-rated by the markets. I have both these two teams priced up @ (2.30 – 3.30). Therefore the best price on offer for the away win represents excellent value, given are rated currently as the 4th best away side in the league.
This looks a really nice bet with Marseille on a opposable (Plus 1) home rating. This score is driven by them winning just 2 out of their previous 6 home games in line with the modelling. (W2 D4 L0).
The stand out performance to look at is the (2-2) home draw this season against a Bordeaux side that have shown very poor underlying numbers in the league. Both Bordeaux goals were technically well taken, that said, Marseille created just 1 big chance in the opposition penalty area.
Marseille do seem far happier away from home where their process is fairing much better. in their own stadium they do look opposable off their current score. Their data shows they are a side that are guilty of no taking advantage of their potent attacking threat.
On the other hand, St Etienne look a real threat off their strong (Plus 12) away rating. This is driven by them winning 3 out of their precious 6 away games in line with the modelling. (W3 D3 L0)
Their stand out result was probably going to PSG and putting up a stern test against the champions at that time. St Etienne limited PSG to just two big chances in the game and on expected goals fought closely, 1.26 – 1.10. The final outcome was a slender (3-2) win for PSG.
This game last season ended in a (0-2) away win for St Etienne. Psychologically that may bring some confidence. Marseille rued their missed chances in this game, and St Etienne capitalised with two very well taken goals.