Alex Noren Miss Cut, 2.5, Bet365, 1.2pts
Tommy Fleetwood Miss Cut, 3.5, Bet365, 2.4pts
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Miss Cut, 2.75, Bet365, 0.6pts
Branden Grace Miss Cut, 2.62, Bet365, 2.4pts
Justin Rose Miss Cut, 2.75, Bet365, 2.4pts
Lee Westwood Miss Cut, 2.37, Bet365, 4.8pts
Alex Noren, Tommy Fleetwood, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Branden Grace and Justin Rose Miss Cut, 173.7, Bet365, 0.1pts
A lot of picks in this market I really like this week so lets get to it!. To avoid me repeating myself later I think that solid driving stats are going to be key this week!
Noren has missed the cut 3 times from 10 events this season which make the price look somewhere near fair. That said he ranks 194th on tour in the SG off the tee category and is that’s the main reason I want to oppose this week. His overall SG is outside of the top 100 too. Added bonus is he missed the cut here last year too!
I’ve seen a lot of people tipping up Fleetwood this week but I’m more than happy to oppose him at a decent price. He missed the cut here last year and whilst he has had previous success at this course I’m more inclined to focus on the most recent performance rather than those before it.
The reason for this is his SG off the tee stats have deteriorated each season for the last 4 years and with that so have his finishes in this event (with the exception of 2019 possibly). He’s currently ranked 187th on tour in this category too! Don’t get me wrong he’s had some good performances this year on the European tour but it’s not translating into his PGA tour appearances at the moment.
Bezuidenhout is another European Tour specialist that’s yet to make an impact in America this season. His SG off the tee stats are worse than the two aforementioned players at 221st on tour! That said it’s a small sample and he’s yet to miss a cut in the two events he has played with a cut on the PGA tour this season so keeping stakes down.
Branden Grace won last week so what am I doing betting against him! Well, generally it seems that last week was an anomaly in a very weak field. He’s missed the cut 5 times from 12 events and is 161st on tour SG total for the season so I think the price has reacted too much to his win last week.
Justin Rose is another struggling off the tee and ranks outside the top 200 on tour this season. With the other previous tips they have aspects of their games which on the right course can iron this out but unfortunately for Rose it doesn’t appear like he’s got that. Outside the top 100 in every one of the 6 key SG metrics. 2 missed cuts from 5 events with cuts in them too (would have been another last week if there was a cut). Not the player he used to be at the moment.
Lee Westwood is the big tip of the week. I was onside with him on the masters and he did reasonably well. Since then he has been terrible though! SG off the tee is awful and his biggest strength has been putting which can come and go.
Similar to rose he has 2 missed cuts from 5 events with cuts in them too (also would have been another last week if there was a cut!). It pains me to bet against him being a fellow Nottingham Forest fan but combined scores of +27 in his 5 PGA tour events this season are not good enough!
Combining all the 365 tips for a missed cut accy cheer!