Chris Kirk 0.5pts EW – 125/1 @ SpreadEx (6 Places 1/5 Odds)
Charley Hoffman 0.5pts EW – 100/1 @ bet365 (8 Places 1/5 Odds)
Russell Knox Top 20 Finish 1pt – 11/2 @ Paddy Power
Matthew NeSmith Top 20 Finish 1.5pts – 9/2 @ Paddy Power
Kyle Stanley Top 20 Finish 1.5pts – 5/1 @ Paddy Power
Odds correct at the time of publication (18.45 02/03/21) but subject to change.
These golf betting tips come from the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the outright market and the top 20 market.
Chris Kirk has bounced back from his problems and is starting to look like a 4 time PGA Tour winner again. He’s 39 under par for his last 14 rounds of golf.
In 4 events this year, he’s finished T2 at the Sony Open, T16 at Pebble Beach and T16 at the America Express.
Kirk has a very good record at Bay Hill with Top 20 finishes in 4 of his last 8 appearances. His long game stats this season have been solid ranking in the Top 50 for Driving Accuracy (42nd), Greens in Regulation (39th) and Strokes Gained Approach (37th).
The best thing is the price. His last PGA Tour win was in 2015 but he won on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. 125/1 looks great.
Charley Hoffman is a gamble this week given he’s withdrawn a few times this season. But he’s also played some very good golf. Notably at Pebble Beach where he shot 10 under par for the weekend to finish T7.
Other good finishes in 20/21 include T6 in the Sanderson Farms and T14 in the Sony Open. His long game is still in fine fettle. 22nd in Strokes Gained off the Tee, 34th in Strokes Gained total, 24th in Driving Distance and 31st in Greens in Regulation.
Like Kirk, Hoffman is a 4 time PGA Tour winner. What really stands out is his course form. Runner up in 2017, 13th last year and 14th in 2018. He clearly loves Bay Hill and looks a very interesting each-way play at 100/1.
3 Top 20 bets. Starting with Russell Knox. He’s already had 6 Top 25 finishes this season. Knox has been dialed in with his irons rankings 2nd in Greens in Regulation and 15th in Strokes Gained Approach. His record here at Bay Hill isn’t the best but he did finish 29th in 2015.
Matthew NeSmith is playing beautiful golf right now. 6 Top 20s in his last 10 events. T20 – T6 – T7 in his last 3 tournaments. 1st in Greens in Regulation, 9th in Strokes Gained Approach and 21st in Strokes Gained Total. 9/2 for a Top 20? Yes please sir!
Kyle Stanley completes the tips. The type of player you want for the Top 20. Excellent Tee to Green, useless with the putter. He’s playing well though with 5 cuts in a row and his worst finish was 39th.
Stanley has finished in the Top 20 in 3 of his last 5 appearances in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He ranks 29th in Greens in Regulation and 25th in Strokes Gained Approach.
I should be back tomorrow with tips from the First Round Leader market and 1st Round 3 balls. Good Luck with your bets this week and please gamble responsibly.
FEATURED IMAGE “RBC Heritage Practice Round April 11, 2012 in Hilton Head, SC” by Keith Allison is licensed under CC BY 2.0