Odds correct at the time of publication (03/03/21 – 16.15) – Subject to change
These golf betting tips come from the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the First Round Leader market.
There doesn’t appear to be much of a draw bias this week. It will be cooler for the morning starters but with that could come softer conditions. I’ve found 3 players with course form who also rank in the Top 50 for the following stats:
First up Sam Burns. A no brainer, even with his early 7am tee time. His 1st Round Scoring Average this season is 68.2 (#4 on the PGA Tour). He led by 2 shots after round 1 at Riviera and was also T3 after 18 holes in Phoenix.
Burns ranks 14th in Birdie Average and 27th in Par 5 Scoring. He’s a very good putter on Bermuda greens. In 3 appearances at Bay Hill he has twice broken 70 in Round 1 and was T5 after 18 holes last year.
Charley Hoffman is one of my go-to guys in this market. He landed me a winner earlier in the season at the Sanderson Farms Championship. His record at Bay Hill is excellent. Top 15 finishes in 3 of his last 4 appearances including a runner-up in 2017.
That year he was T3 after Round 1. Hoffman ranks in the Top 50 for 1st Round Scoring Average, Birdie Average and Par 5 Scoring. He’s off around noon so will get to enjoy the warmer conditions in the afternoon. 66/1 looks decent.
Jason Kokrak tees off at 7.44 am. He’s already won this market once this season with a 62 in the Sony Open to tie the 1st Round Lead. He was also T4 with a bunch of others at Riviera after 18 holes.
Kokrak loves Bay Hill. Top 20 finishes in 5 of his last 7 appearances. 10th in 2019, 6th in 2015 and 4th in 2014. He opened with 67 in both 2014 and 2015 and sat T5 and T2 after Round 1. A popular selection this week in the outright having finished 9th in the WGC event on Sunday.