Analysis of this game have both these two teams very evenly matched in terms of ratings and expected goals over a small sample size of games. Therefore the value lie’s with the away side, given I have this game rated 50/50.

Valencia are on a very inconsistent (Minus 1) home rating. This is driven by them winning just two out of their previous six home games in line with the modelling. Their latest performance was an extremely fortunate 3-3 draw against Atletico Madrid. Valencia scored twice in injury time to steal an undeserved point.

As an attacking threat, Valencia rank 8th at home and 11th away from home, so quite consistent in their performances. Athletico Bilbao rank 7th and Rayo Vallecano recorded a 1-2 win in September.

On the other hand, Rayo Vallecano are one of the highest rated overall teams in La Liga. Away from home, Rayo Vallecano have a (Plus 3) away rating, so they have every chance of walking away with all the points.

As an attacking threat, Rayo rank 5th away from home and 10th at home, so their process is fairing better on their travels. Their latest away performance was very encouraging losing narrowly away at Real Madrid.

Analysis of this game have Birmingham over-rated by the markets. I have both these two teams priced up differently @ 2.80 – 2.50. Therefore the best price on offer for the away win holds smart value.

My model has Birmingham on a very poor (Minus 9) home rating. This is driven by them failing to win in four out of their previous six home games. Their latest home defeat was 1-2 against Reading who rank 20th away from home for attacking output.

As an attacking threat, Birmingham rank 13th at home which makes their slight odds against price seem very generous. Away from home they rank 15th, so seemingly consistent with their attacking process.

Birmingham have also come off the back of two away games in which they failed to find the net in both. The 2-0 away defeat to Hull City was very poor and another factor in why they just seem way too short for me.

On the other hand, Blackpool have a (Plus 7) away rating. This is driven by them remaining unbeaten in five out of their previous six away games. Their latest away performance was a 1-1 draw against Swansea who have a (Plus 10) home rating.

As an attacking threat, Blackpool do languish low in 16th, however, their away rating suggests this is a side that can grind out results and that’s exactly what they did away at Sheffield United winning the game 0-1.

This is a team that have won away at Middlesbrough and Reading this season. Both these two teams have a higher home rating than Birmingham, so every reason they can produce once again.

Analysis of this game have Gil Vicente under-rated by the markets. I have both these two teams priced up differently @ 3.00 – 2.40. Therefore the best price on offer for the away win holds smart value.

My model has Moreirense on an inconsistent (Minus 4) home rating. This is driven by them failing to win four out of their opening five home fixtures thus far. from open play.

As an attacking threat, Moreirense rank 9th at home and 9th away, so seemingly consistent in their process, that said, their last home performance they generated just 0.39 xG against a lower rated side than Gil Vicente.

The stand out result, this far, was the 2-3 defeat at home to Braga. In terms of the underlying numbers there’s not much to choose between Braga and Gil Vicente, so it’s seems surprising that Gil Vicente haven’t been given more credit in the markets.

As for Gil Vicente, they come into this on a very strong (Plus 10) away rating. This is delivered by them winning three out of their opening five home games from open play.

As an attacking threat, Gil Vicente rank 6th away from home and they’re above this evenings opponents both home and away, so in the final third they look the better of the two teams.

Saengkham doesn’t have a great record in this market this season but that’s mainly due to his opponents consistently making high breaks. His break building this season has been much better than Carters with double the amount of centuries(8-4) despite playing 22 fewer frames.

O’Sullivan looks focused and in good form at the moment. He played very well in his first round win over Michael White with 2 breaks of over 130 to open match. He met Williams in February and whitewashed him with a 4-0 win and in 3 head to head matches leads 12-1 on frame aggregate with 2 whitewashes.

Holt has been in poor form all year, after a poor end to last season he’s managed just 2 wins out of 9 so far this season with a defeat to a player raked 101st and a draw and a defeat to an amateur. Looked unconvincig in a scrappy win over Surety in the 1st round. Hicks has won 4 matches this season including an impressive 6-5 win over Liang Wenbo in the 1st round here this week with a break of 135 in the decider.